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Douglas Trudeau , Assoc. Broker
Prudential Foothills Real Estate
64 N. Harrison Road, Suite 160
Tucson , AZ 85748
Mobile: 520-954-2209
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August 2008 Tucson Homes Sales Statistics and Prediction

Tucson home sales for August were nothing spectacular, yet not horrible considering the current market. TAR/MLS reported 903 official sales. Which was 13 sales below what I predicted eight months ago. However, not all the numbers were in when the monthly report is prepared. As of today there were 917 sales. Which was one over what I predicted. I predict September will see a significant decrease to 750 homes. Seasonally home sales decline in the fall and winter months in Tucson. September generally sees a 17% decrease in the number of homes sold when compared to August sales. October should see a 6% increase over September. Its the seasonal trend.

Average home sales for the month of August was $238,504, with a median of $185,000. A significant difference. There were 10 homes that sold for over $1 million, averaging $1.29 million. There were 174 homes that sold between the median and average sales prices. Fifteen percent of the homes that sold were within the highest range of homes for sale which is the $200,000 to $249,999 range for a total of 135 homes. Fifty seven percent of the homes sold in August sold for under $200,000. Of that over half of these homes sold for under $150,000.

By the numbers:

Home Sales Volume: Decreased 10.57%

7/08 $240,837,426
8/08 $215,369,442

Average Sales Price: Decreased 6.42%

7/08 $254,854
8/08 $238,504

Pending Contracts: Decreased 8.54%

7/08 960
8/08 878

Active Listings: Decreased 1.43%

7/08 7,876
8/08 7,763

New Listings: Increased 16.26%

7/08 1,679
8/081,952

Home Sales Units: Decreased: 4.44%

7/08 945 (949 actual)
8/08 903 (917 actual)

Median Sales Price: Decreased 7.45%

7/08 $199,900
8/08 $185,000

More bad news hit the market this month, coupled with the uncertainty of the upcoming elections, sales for October may fall below the 750 I predicted in December 2007. Consumer faith is at an all time low. We will recover, its just a matter of time. How long? Nobody knows. I’ll take a stab at one important part of it based on current statistics. We are seeing the number of homes for sale (inventory) decrease every month for the past 8 months.

From January through August we have seen monthly decreases in inventory, a good sign in today’s market. At one point in time we were up to 10,000 homes on the market, now we are down to 7,763. The monthly declines in inventory this year have been

Aug	1.43%
July	3.24%
June	4.54%
May	12.28%
April	15.20%
March	1.59%
February	6.89%
January	5.89%

Throwing out the absurd months of May and April, the average of the remaining six months has been 3.93%. Being conservative, I am rounding down to 3%.

Given that a stable market inventory is approx. 5,500 to 6,000 homes for the Tucson market, we could see a healthy inventory as early as May 2009 to reach below 6,000 and August 2009 to get below 5,500. There are two primary factors to consider for this to become a reality; sales remaining predictable and following seasonal trends, and no flooding of the market by sellers suddenly seeing improvement.

Foreclosures, short sales, bank owned properties, average prices, and affordability are other subjects. All I am talking about is a reasonable amount of inventory. Once that milestone is reached, then others will follow like dominoes. Its just a matter of time. How long? Wouldn’t we all like to know. Lets reach one milestone at a time.

This entry was posted on Thursday, September 18th, 2008 at 9:10 am and is filed under Tucson Real Estate. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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