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Douglas Trudeau , Assoc. Broker
Prudential Foothills Real Estate
64 N. Harrison Road, Suite 160
Tucson , AZ 85748
Mobile: 520-954-2209
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Tucson Real Estate September 2007 Sales Report

Tucson Association of Realtors has finally finished their report. I am inclined to agree with Dave Smith that TARMLS should be able to get this information our much faster. I like Dave’s perspective on the market, particularly in the northwest. I tend to take a slightly different, yet similar view.

As I reported earlier this month, sales have drifted down to near 1996 statistics. With only 683 reported home sales through the MLS the number of sales are dramatically low. Drama that is filled with emotion. Borrowing words of the renowned “Grave Dancer” Sam Zell, “It’s a confidence crunch, not a credit crunch…” that has lead to the current conditions in real estate. Now, this is a man who makes billions of dollars following housing bubbles. What is he seeing to make billion$ that millions of home buyers are not seeing? Why should he get all the money that home buyers could get? Confidence, not credit has lead to an over supply of homes on the market with reduced sales.

The seasonal reduction in home sales is upon us in Tucson’s real estate market and will last until March. Using percentages Tucson real estate sales it is easy to see that sales can be expected to decline slightly during September through February. Using May, the highest sales month as 100%, the percentages are as follows.

Jan 59%
Feb 68%
Mar 87%
Apr 90%
May 100%
Jun 98%
Jul 91%
Aug 91%
Sep 77%
Oct 80%
Nov 71%
Dec 73%

Pending sales were down 4% from August. Which will impact on October sales. Considering that sales for October are routinely 11% lower than August a 4% decrease is acceptable. Hopefully buyer confidence will help throw the numbers off by having higher than a 3% increase in sales. Tucson Real Estate Chopping Block

In Housing Market Predictions, I stopped predicting home sales until there are signs of confidence returning. My neck is a little sore from the ax. With all that has happened in the mortgage industry there are too many perceptions that are clouding rational thinking and creating a reality from fear.

Average home price increased from August by $5,093. The Median price dropped by $5,000. It all depends on the umber of sales within a given price range. I personally like to see the average and the median prices with a few thousand dollars. When I see an average of $279,925 and a median of $215,000 I have to dig deeper into the “Why?”

September definitely saw a significant drop in sales. I tend to believe that it is an emotional response of buyer confidence. The Herd Mentality is a definite factor here. The problem with it is, by the time buyers realize that the market has recovered it will be a woulda, shoulda, coulda scenario.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, October 16th, 2007 at 3:19 pm and is filed under Tucson Real Estate. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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October 17th, 2007 // Arizona Mortgage Guru » Blog Archive » Best Time for Canadians to Purchase Real Estate in the US

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