Tucson Real Estate Blogs » Buyers Wanted - September 2007 Tucson Home Sales Below Averages

Tucson Real Estate & Golf Properties

Douglas Trudeau , Assoc. Broker
Prudential Foothills Real Estate
64 N. Harrison Road, Suite 160
Tucson , AZ 85748
Mobile: 520-954-2209
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Buyers Wanted - September 2007 Tucson Home Sales Below Averages

I do not like doom and gloom, however, reality is reality and honesty is the best policy. If September’s first 20 days of real estate sales in greater Tucson is an indication of the full month, sales will be much lower than anticipated. By August 20th there were 592 recorded sales in the MLS. The September 20th number is considerably lower at 385. Watching the number of homes coming on the market the months of inventory are climbing again.

As of the time of this writing, we are looking at 9,924 homes for sale in and around greater Tucson. Of those 9,924 there are 786 under contract with an additional 549 pending sale. Looking at the total sales for August, September may be hard pressed to see 1,000 sales. Not what I or anyone wants to hear. September traditionally sees approximately 200 less sales than August, with an ever so slight increase for October.

With the actions for the feds last week a few more buyers will be coming off the fence post…I hope; as do 9,900 homeowners with their homes on the market.

The media hasn’t been much help in getting buyers and sellers together. All the reporting about prices decreasing, trouble with sub-primes and foreclosures on the rise do nothing to stimulate the market. Prices have decreased in several areas. Prices have remained the same in a few and even risen in a few other communities.

So, for those homeowners holding to a specific price buyers are giving a clear message. “Price it right or I’m not buying!” For those wanting to sell, lowering the price to a near garage sale bargain may be your only choice if you are in a community that has seen prices fall.

Ask your Realtor to run comparison sales for your home for the past 18 months to see if there is a pattern. Buyers can buy if they are smart about it and look at the historical picture of that particular community or subdivision.

If you’re on the fence post about buying. Get off and have your Realtor do their homework. Here is what to look for:

What’s the history of sales since January 2005 for homes with exact square footage, or if not available homes within 100 square feet (similar sales), of the one you are considering?
Compare sales within that specific subdivision; i.e., Woodbridge at Midvale.
Compare similar sales within that community; i.e., Midvale Park.
Compare similar sales within a 1/4, 1/2 or 1 mile.
Ask your Realtor to chart the sales history based on that information.

Now you are ready to decide what price to offer with all the ammunition your need to convincingly argue that point. You can buy a home in this market with the right information to make a safe decision. Get off the fence post, find a Realtor to work with, and buy, buy, buy.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, September 26th, 2007 at 6:37 am and is filed under Tucson Real Estate. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Hi Doug!

Some questions… What about new homes? understand that it might not be your area or whatever… but you should know, right?

I’ve read your series about buying… but I’m confused about “negotiation”. I.e. is there a lowball that is insulting? Or do you just offer what you fell the home is worth?

Thanks!

BTW - This is the same Bobby joe that thinks the market is in the pottie.

September 26th, 2007 // bobby joe
Bobby Joe - Welcome back. New homes are difficult to determine. The same builder in one area is offering $10-$20-$30 thousand off the asking price. Knowing that some are closing out their fiscal year in October creates some real incentives. While the same builder in another area boasts of raising prices. Location, location, location.

My recommendation is look at resale is the area. If it’s close, the price is close. If the builder is asking too much…guess what? When talking to the sales rep read carefully. The print says they represent the builder, not you as the buyer. Whose representing you? Doesn’t cost anything to you to have a Realtor in your corner looking out for you.
As far as what to offer? Offer low enough to keep negotiations open. If homes are selling for $220,000 offer $210,000. If you offer $150,000 the seller may be upset enough to reject a $300,000 all cash counter offer. Rule of thumb, try 1-3% below what the last home sold for in a geographical area where sales are flat and 3-5% below the last one in a declining sales geographical area. Find a Realtor you feel comfortable with, have him or her search history of sales from January 2005 to present, and get a clear picture of the market for that area. Also look at the time span between sales. If they’re moving, demand is taking up supply. If big gaps in time frames, over supply with low demand.

September 26th, 2007 // Doug